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India-Pak Rivalry Expands into South Caucasus Amid Growing Military Alliances

By Andrew Karybko, PhD
Geopolitical Analyst

Follow on X (formerly Twitter): @AKorybko

As Azerbaijan eyes Pakistani fighter jets, the traditional Indo-Pak rivalry ventures into new territory, unveiling a complex web of global alliances, strategic interests, and an emerging schism between Russia and China.

Emergence of New Military Alliances

The Indo-Pakistani military rivalry is taking a new turn with Azerbaijan's reported plans to purchase JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan, as cited by Business Insider from Azeri and Pakistani sources. This development highlights the deepening military cooperation between the two nations, underpinned by their mutual support on issues like Karabakh and Kashmir.

India's entry into the South Caucasus through arms sales to Armenia last year marked the beginning of this expanded rivalry. Despite controversies, such as the alleged re-exportation of Indian arms by Armenia to third countries, the strategic partnership between India and Armenia continues, driven by mutual concerns over Azerbaijan and Turkey's support for Pakistan.

Russia's concerns and Iran's interests

The situation is complicated by the West's increasing influence in Armenia, challenging Russia's traditional dominance in the region's arms industry. Russia sees India's growing military ties with Yerevan as a counterbalance to Western influence, which is perceived as a threat to regional stability.

Iran, facilitating India's arms exports to Armenia, aims to prevent Armenia from becoming a NATO proxy, safeguarding its own regional interests. Meanwhile, Pakistan's engagement with Azerbaijan, highlighted by the potential JF-17 deal, is a point of concern for Iran due to strained bilateral relations. The JF-17 Thunder fighter jets are jointly produced by Pakistan and China, hinting at Beijing’s quiet expansion of its military influence in the South Caucasus.

Emerging China-Russia competition

This geopolitical chess board thus mirrors an emerging arms competition between China and Russia in Asia, signaling a broader trend of confident asian countries engaging in military diplomacy previously dominated by Western and Russian powers. The shift underscores a growing strategic independence among Asian countries, reshaping the landscape of global military alliances and rivalries.

- Lakshman Sagar

@Lakshmansagar2